071401Unexpected Priority: Stem Cell Research's Rise as a Test for Bush
July 14, 2001
NEWS ANALYSIS
Unexpected Priority: Stem Cell Research's Rise as a Test for Bush
By FRANK BRUNI
ASHINGTON, July 13 — The debate about research on embryonic stem
cells has traveled in just a month's time from relative obscurity to
magazine-cover ubiquity, and, many political analysts and lawmakers
say it has become a defining issue of President Bush's first year in
office.
With social conservatives imploring Mr. Bush to withhold federal
support for the research and moderates pushing him to permit it, he
faces a decision that could fix his place on the political spectrum
more firmly than anything he has done to date.
Both Republicans and Democrats said that for many voters, the course
Mr. Bush charts would be interpreted as a indicator of the extent to
which he feels bound to the right or, alternately, is willing to
reach toward the center.
During a period when some polls have shown a drop in Mr. Bush's
approval ratings and he could use more support from moderates than
he seems to have, his decision could shape voters' attitudes toward
him in crucial ways, analysts said.
Embryonic stem cells have the potential to grow into any cell or
tissue, holding promise for repairing and replacing damaged organs.
The research draws opposition from religious conservatives, as well
as the Roman Catholic Church, because it results in the destruction
of embryos.
The issue's potency is reflected in the months of meetings that Mr.
Bush has devoted to it and the frequency with which it pops up in
conversations around the West Wing. Several White House officials
said that stem cell research has provoked as much formal and casual
discussion as anything since Mr. Bush's inauguration nearly six
months ago.
Several lawmakers characterized the issue as something of a litmus
test for Mr. Bush.
"It's an opportunity for him, having fully established his
conservative credentials, to establish compassionate credentials,"
said Senator Susan Collins, a Maine Republican who supports the
research.
Ms. Collins said the issue was also an opportunity for Mr. Bush "to
show a degree of independence" from social conservatives in his
party.
John Weaver, a senior political aide to Senator John McCain,
Republican of Arizona, said that the way Mr. Bush acted on this
issue, along with his handling of a patients' bill of rights, could
speak powerfully to "a perception, and I'm not saying it's fair,
that this administration is too tied to corporate interests and very
conservative."
Mr. Weaver added that Mr. Bush's actions could "lock some of those
perceptions down permanently among voters or, if the administration
goes in a different direction, could soften those perceptions."
Administration officials have said that Mr. Bush will most likely
make a decision on the research financing before the end of July. If
he withholds or severely restricts federal support, the decision may
be seen as more ideological than, say, his ban on federal funds for
overseas groups that provide abortion-related counseling, because
many abortion opponents support the stem-cell research.
"We're into new territory here," one senior administration official
said. "It doesn't slice nice."
This official and others said the issue was complicated enough — and
stirred enough passion — that the only sure benefit Mr. Bush could
wring from his decision was a public perception that he reached it
thoughtfully.
To that end, the White House press secretary, Ari Fleischer, has
repeatedly said that Mr. Bush was listening to every viewpoint and
taking a deeply "deliberative" approach.
Mr. Bush has received contradictory political analyses. Some
prominent Republicans contend that a permissive decision on the
research will not be enough to win over moderates, so he would be
wisest to stay with his conservative base. According to this
thinking, only conservatives can be trusted to reward him.
Other Republicans who advise the administration see serious
political danger for Mr. Bush, at this particular juncture, if he
reinforces the most socially conservative aspects of his image.
"If he goes and refuses to use stem-cell research — if he bans it —
then I think he will look more rigid and inflexible than he wants
to," said one Republican strategist who often speaks with
administration officials.
Another administration adviser said: "It's a defining issue. If the
administration can find a middle ground, they can really move
people's impressions of him as a very conservative president."
Several people familiar with the White House deliberations said Mr.
Bush might not feel completely tethered to a campaign position of
seemingly unwavering opposition to the research.
Conversely, some administration officials are studying scientific
arguments against the research, apparently in the hope of justifying
a ban on the research along those lines.
The argument would be that similarly controversial research on fetal
tissue has not yielded measurable progress and that doctors are
intrigued by the promise of stem cells derived from body fat that do
not involve the destruction of embryos.
There have been no clear hints of what Mr. Bush will decide.
David Gergen, a longtime political strategist who has worked in both
Republican and Democratic administrations, said the president's
prolonged contemplation of the issue suggested he was moving beyond
his thinking during the campaign.
"Why would he delay otherwise?" Mr. Gergen asked. "Why would he go
through this process that is only raising the political price of any
decision? I don't think the public was paying much attention to it
just three to four weeks ago."
Polls generally show much more public support than opposition to
federal funding of the research, but they also suggest that people
are still sifting through their feelings — and can be swayed one way
or the other. Partly for that reason, some political analysts
contend that Mr. Bush can safely make any decision he likes, as long
as he articulates it well.
"The president has a great deal of flexibility," said Bill
McInturff, a Republican pollster. Mr. McInturff added that by his
reading of current polls, "I don't see any evidence that he's been
pushed beyond a comfortable center-right majority of this country."
On his tax cut and education plan, Mr. Bush has indeed attracted
significant Democratic support. But he has alienated many moderate
voters with his positions and actions on environmental issues.
"Swing voters are moving away from him," said Doug Schoen, a
Democratic pollster. "So this is the time when he really has to make
key decisions." Foremost among them, Mr. Schoen said, was federal
support for embryonic stem cells research.
Little more than a month ago, the public interest in it was minimal.
"Now it's an avalanche," said Senator Arlen Specter, a Pennsylvania
Republican who supports the research. "It's just overwhelming."
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